Managing Your Money: DFS Week 2

With week one in the books let’s take a look at what week two has in store for the daily fantasy community. I’m seeing what I believe is an overcorrection on player values due to DFS sites allowing players to set their lineups two weeks in advance. In the NFL a lot can change in two weeks, so they seem to be trying to make up for lost time. For example: Spencer Ware jumped from $4,400 to $6,100 on Draft Kings in one week after posting big numbers Sunday. That’s a huge jump in value and (while reasonable) an effort by the site to overcompensate for allowing players to set lineups before all the news shook out in the NFL. All that aside, let’s take a look at what the daily fantasy landscape has to offer and see if we can help win you some money.

Side note: the values and scoring we use are from Draft Kings. I prefer them for two reasons. They utilize PPR scoring and have an additional flex spot on the roster with no kickers. Everyone hates kickers. Even more so, everyone hates losing money to a team that happens to have a better kicker that week.

Quarterbacks:

Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Value $6,200

Famous Jameis had a solid day against the Falcons last week throwing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns. He showed excellent chemistry with his favorite play maker, Mike Evans, and spread the ball around to multiple receivers as well. His value actually dropped from last week, which is likely due to under usage and him facing a better defense in the Arizona Cardinals this week. While I agree that the Cards are a better defense than the Falcons, I’m not so convinced that Winston will underperform in this game. This same defense allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to throw for 264 yards and a touchdown with a banged up offense in week one. If Jameis can stay poised I think he has a solid return on his value this week.

Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons – Value $6,800

This will serve has my Matty Ice hype piece, since everyone is so tired of writing them. The long time breakout candidate has yet to realize his full potential but starts this season with a fairly advantageous slate of games. He’s got the weapons to perform at a high level and should be more comfortable with the new offense that was implemented last season. He’s priced as a middle of the pack choice in Draft Kings this week and faces an Oakland defense that surrendered 423 yards and 4 touchdowns to Drew Brees in week one. As long as Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu are healthy Ryan has a shot to put up big numbers at his price point.

Eli Manning – New York Giants – Value $7,600

I typically play multiple lineups in Draft Kings each week. One strategy I’m deploying early this season is picking whichever quarterback plays the New Orleans Saints. This week that happens to be Eli Manning. The Saints have a weak defense, and the offense is dynamic enough to turn any game into a shootout. The Giants have an impressive offense themselves, and Vegas has this game as the highest projected point total this week. Manning is a little pricey but has the ability to provide a large return on the investment.

Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints – Value $8,200

Speaking of a pricey investment, Brees tops the charts as the most expensive quarterback on the board this week. He roasted the Raiders in week one throwing for 423 yards and 4 touchdowns and has a shot to put up similar numbers against a Giants defense that allowed rookie Dak Prescott to throw for 227 yards in his NFL debut. One would think that someone like Brees could far surpass that total. Stacking Brees with one of his counterparts will be popular this week, so that’s something to keep in mind as well.

Hail Mary Play:

Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – Washington Redskins

The Dak-Attack was featured in this article last week as a value option, so I’m including him once again but as a Hail Mary play. Nobody really expected Prescott to set the world on fire in his NFL debut, but he managed the game well and didn’t make many mistakes. He also had a touchdown to Dez Bryant called back on review, so his day would’ve looked much different had that play not been overturned. At $5,200, Dak is still very much a value flier. However, Dallas will play a Washington defense that had difficulty slowing down Big Ben and the Steelers last week. If Prescott can take another step forward I think he’s worth the risk at the price.

Running Backs:

Theo Riddick – Detroit Lions – Value $4,300

Riddick was our Hail Mary play last week, and boy did he pay off if you took our advice. His price has only jumped up $300 after a 27 point fantasy performance, and I’m not shy about rolling him out in week two. The Titans aren’t nearly as efficient on offense as the Colts, so this game shouldn’t be the high scoring affair the Lions saw in week one. However, Tennessee effectively shut down Adrian Peterson and made Minnesota beat them through the air on Sunday. If they deploy the same game plan this week, then the Lions may be forced to resort to the passing game if Abdullah struggles. This is where Riddick excels, and I’m happy adding him into a lineup or two based on his price and potential.

CJ Anderson – Denver Broncos – Value $6,800

I was one of the most pessimistic people you could find regarding Anderson coming into this season. He burned me last year (as he did many owners), and I didn’t have faith that his late season surge would carry over into 2016. I’ll be the first to admit I may have been wrong. Anderson finished as the third highest scoring running back last week and has a real shot to put up big points again this week. You won’t find many running backs in the NFL these days with a guaranteed workload, but CJ seems to have just that as long as the Broncos have Trevor Siemian at quarterback. Anderson faces off against the Colts defense this week, which is much softer than the Panthers he faced in week one. At a modest price of $6,800, you could definitely do worse this week.

DeMarco Murray – Tennessee Titans – Value $5,700

The preseason reemergence of Murray appears to be no fluke. He was impactful as both a runner and receiver on Sunday as he racked up over 22 fantasy points. All the talk of Murray splitting snaps with rookie Derrick Henry seems to be unfounded at this early point in the season. While Henry did see some action, it’s clear that DeMarco is the lead back in this offense. He faces off against a Lions defense that has allowed the third most touchdowns to opposing running backs going back to last season, so Murray has an opportunity to have a big day for the second week in a row.

Danny Woodhead – San Diego Chargers – Value $5,200

With a name like Woodhead, he’s gotta be good. In all honesty, if you can’t find any humor in this guy’s last name we wouldn’t be friends. Fortunately for Woodhead, his name is just about the only funny thing you can point out about him. He’s always overlooked in drafts and almost always produces on a weekly basis. Last season Danny led the Chargers in receptions after Keenan Allen went down for the count with an injury. Well guess what? Allen is once again done for the season and much earlier than last year. The Chargers are going to be a team that is going to have to play from behind often this year, and Woodhead is going to be the running back in this offense that shines in those situations. Don’t let Melvin Gordon’s two touchdowns scare you away this week. San Diego plays a strong Jacksonville offense, and this game could easily turn into an aerial assault on both sides. Woodhead’s price also opens up cash to spend up at other positions.

Hail Mary play:

Tevin Coleman – Atlanta Falcons – Value $4,500

Funny fact about Tevin Coleman, he was actually Atlanta’s starting running back entering the 2016 season. He got off to a fast start too, but an injury opened the door for Devonta Freeman to take the starting job by the throat and never look back. We heard a flurry of rumors in the offseason about how the Falcons wanted to utilize both running backs this season. Many thought this was simply a smoke screen and paid no mind to what the coaching staff was telling us. It seems on this rare occasion they weren’t lying. Each running back had a scarily similar touch count, however, it was Coleman that did most with what he was given. If I’m considering either of these players in Draft Kings this week, then I’m leaning Coleman simply due to his price.

Wide Receivers:

Kelvin Benjamin – Carolina Panthers – Value $6,500

We here at No Huddle have been talking for weeks now about how we simply don’t understand all the pessimism surrounding Benjamin this year. This is the same player that exploded in his rookie season and plays in an offense that was helmed by the league MVP last year. It seems that our confusion was not unfounded. Big Kel only played 50 snaps in his season debut and still hauled in 6 catches on 12 targets and a touchdown. Again, he only played 50 snaps and was able to score 21 fantasy points. This may be a man crush, but I’m in on Benjamin as long as he stays below the $7,000 mark in Draft Kings. The Panthers will play the 49ers this week, and I have to think they’ll want to make a statement after losing to the Broncos again.

Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead – New Orleans Saints – Values $8,000/$5,800

I debated for a while on which Saints receiver to include this week, and I simply couldn’t. I won’t do this often, but I’m adding both. Each of these guys had a stellar start to the season in week one, and it’s difficult to separate them in daily fantasy. Cooks seems like the sure thing in an offense that is lacking defensively, but Snead provides so much value that he’s almost impossible to ignore. If you can build a lineup that includes both Brees and Snead that would be optimal. If you decide to fade on Brees I would at least try to include Cooks on my team. Either way, the matchup between the Saints and Giants is the highest projected scoring game this week. I’ll be deploying these two players however I can.

Odell Beckham Jr – New York Giants – Value $9,500

If there’s one receiver I’m paying up for this week (outside of Antonio Brown), it’s OBJ. He was mostly held in check by the Cowboys on Sunday, who seemed hell bent on stopping him at all costs. The Cowboys efforts proved futile as they still lost the game, and Eli Manning was able to concentrate on his other receivers. I don’t believe that will be the case this week. The Giants play the Saints this week. As I mentioned earlier with Manning, I’m playing quarterbacks and receivers against this defense every chance I get. I think Beckham bounces back this week in a big way.

Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals – Value $6,400

There will be a day where Fitz runs out of gas and will be unable to play at a high level. For many analysts that was supposed to be this season for the 33 year old eventual Hall of Famer. Once again, he’s proved us all wrong. Fitzgerald excelled against the Patriots where his counterparts were mostly held in check. Vegas has this week’s matchup between the Cardinals and Buccaneers as the second highest projected scoring game on the slate, so each team is expected to score points. If I can get WR1 production out of a player set at $6,400, then I’m taking it.

Hail Mary Play:

Tyrell Williams – San Diego Chargers – Value $3,700

While we all weep for Keenan Allen, his unfortunate placement on injured reserve leaves a lot of room for targets in the San Diego offense. I debated between Travis Benjamin and Williams here, but decided to go with Tyrell because of his price tag. Keep in mind, this is purely a value play in hopes that he outperforms other receivers in the Chargers offense. Williams is a big body receiver that has a similar game as Keenan Allen and may have the most to gain from his departure. I’m projecting San Diego to have to throw in a matchup against the Jags to be competitive. If Williams can somehow click with Phillip Rivers, then he could be a sneaky addition to your squad this week.

Tight Ends:

Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys – Value $4,300

Witten has been an integral cog in the Dallas offense for what seems like forever. He’s been declining in terms of fantasy production for a few seasons now but still very much has the potential to have a big game. His rookie quarterback looked his way early and often against the Giants last week, and Witten looks to be locked in as Prescott’s favorite target to begin the season. Witten led the offense in all receiving categories last week, and I’m banking on that trend to continue against the Redskins on Sunday.

Gary Barnidge – Cleveland Browns – Value $4,000

I know, I know. Barnidge put up a big fat goose egg last week after I included him in this article. While I wasn’t particularly thrilled with RGIII as his quarterback, I certainly didn’t expect him to go scoreless. Now that Griffin is out of the picture Barnidge will be reunited with Josh McCown, who is the same QB that favored the tight end so much last season. I’m rolling Barnidge out again this week and praying he bounces back in a big way.

Eric Ebron – Detroit Lions – Value $3,500

I bought in on Ebron last week mostly due to his low price tag and potential, and he finished as a top scoring tight end. His value is actually down $400 this week, and I’m planning on adding him again. Detroit will play the Titans on Sunday, so the game script likely won’t favor a high scoring game like we saw last week against Indianapolis. However, the Titans were able to shut down Adrian Peterson last week, so Detroit may have to move the ball through the air if Abdullah can’t get anything going. At $3,500, I’m taking Ebron again this week.

Jacob Tamme – Atlanta Falcons – Value $2,900

Tamme is purely a value play for me this week. He was targeted just as often as Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu last week and led the team in catches. Matt Ryan seems comfortable with the veteran tight end and both starting wide receivers are currently listed as questionable. If either or both Jones and Sanu are limited, then Tamme could be a sneaky play. His value also frees up a lot of funds to upgrade at other positions.

Hail Mary Play:

Jack Doyle – Indianapolis Colts – Value $2,500

Doyle’s performance in week one has everyone looking at him to see if there is something that we’re all missing. It’s easy to dismiss his two touchdowns as an outlier, and that’s a likely assumption to be fair. However, he played in over half the snaps on offense and was targeted 4 times. If Doyle somehow turns into a red zone target for Andrew Luck he could hold some value. Adding Doyle to your lineup is a gutsy move but could pay off if Luck starts taking a liking to him.

Defense:

Baltimore Ravens – Value $3,000

The Ravens shut down a talented Buffalo offense last week and will play the always mediocre Cleveland Browns this week. Cleveland is one of the teams I’m targeting every week when considering which defense to play. I see Baltimore making things uncomfortable for Josh McCown in his first start back.

Seattle Seahawks – Value $3,800

I typically shy away from higher priced defenses in Draft Kings, but I’m making an exception after watching the Rams play football on Monday night. I know one week is an awful sample size to use, but St. Louis looks terrible on offense. They seemingly have no game plan outside of handing the ball to Todd Gurley. If Seattle can bottle him up they could put up a lot of points by forcing the Rams to throw the ball.

Who I’m Stacking:

Stacking is a common practice in daily fantasy football. The thought is combining two or more players on the same team yields more fantasy points if those players perform well and is mostly used by pairing a quarterback with his receiver. Common sense tells us that if a quarterback is playing in a favorable situation, then one of his receivers will reap rewards as well. Listed below are a couple of player combos I’m utilizing in week two.

Side note: I am forgoing putting in the effort of typing up something on Drew Brees and either Cooks or Snead. For the foreseeable future these are automatic stacks as long as the matchup makes sense. Roll with Cooks for guaranteed targets. Select Snead for a cheap upside play.

Eli Manning/Odell Beckham Jr – New York – Total Value $17,100

This one is going to cost you, but I’m targeting any quarterback and receivers that play the Saints this year. You could also pair Manning with a less expensive receiver in either Sterling Shepherd ($5,200) or Victor Cruz ($4,300) to help manage your budget a little better. My thought is OBJ will want to redeem himself after being held mostly in check last week, and there’s no better team to have a bounce back game against. The matchup between the Giants and Saints is the highest projected scoring game this week, so I’m adding players from both teams if I can.

Blake Bortles/Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – Total Value $14,500

Bortles performed well against a strong Green Bay team last week but fell a little short of his projection. Robinson was targeted a whopping 15 times but only pulled in 6 catches for 72 yards. The Jags will face off against the Chargers this week, and I believe this game will involve a lot of scoring. Jacksonville is talented enough on offense to pull away from San Diego, and Phillip Rivers should be able to find enough help to keep them in the game. If you’re trying to stay on a budget, Allen Hurns is another solid option with a price tag of only $5,400.

Hail Mary Play:

Trevor Siemian/Emmanuel Sanders – Denver Broncos – Total Value $11,200

As always with our Hail Mary selection, this is a total value play that could potentially pay off. Siemian managed the game well against a ruthless Carolina defense. He only threw for 178 yards, but as a first time starter facing off against one of the best defenses in the league I’d say that’s pretty good. It’s clear the Broncos want to run the football. However, Denver will be taking on a high powered Colts offense this week, and I could see the Broncos being forced to throw more. All of the reports out of Denver regarding Demaryius Thomas don’t make me feel very confident that he’ll be able to play at a high level this week. If he is limited or can’t play, then Sanders immediately becomes the go to guy in Denver. I’m rolling this stack out in a couple lineups this week and loading up at other positions.

Steal of the Week:

Tajae Sharp – Tennessee Titans – Value $4,100

Rookie Tajae Sharp has been taking first team reps with the Titans since August before the team sent Green-Beckham packing. The fact Tennessee showed so much confidence in their draft pick raised a few eyebrows. However, here we are in the second week of the season, and Sharp is quite clearly the number one receiver for the Titans. Marcus Mariota attempted 41 passes against the Vikings on Sunday. 11 of those passes went to Sharp who converted 7 of them into catches for over 70 yards. Tennessee will want to run the ball against a soft Detroit defense, but Matt Stafford has the weapons to score points in a hurry. Vegas has this game at 47 points, and only 6 games are projected over that. I like Sharpe’s chances to put up some big numbers in a revamped Titans offense this week.

If you’re reading this article it’s likely because of your passion for fantasy football. We here at No Huddle share that same passion. I personally have gravitated much more to daily fantasy leagues over the last couple of years for the simple fact that it offers me a new challenge every week rather than giving me the same cards to shuffle around. If you don’t agree with my suggestions or have some additional input let us know!!!

Hit us up on Twitter @No_HuddleFFB for all of your fantasy questions. We’re more than happy to share our opinions. Go get rich this week!

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