Managing Your Money – DFS Guide Week 5

You should have been able to use our selections from last week to put together a pretty decent lineup. Deshaun Watson went off against the Titans and looked like a seasoned veteran. His value skyrocketed as a result, so he’s no longer the value play he was in previous weeks. Leonard Fournette and Wendell Smallwood put in respectable performances as well and combined for over 42 points. Jordy Nelson, Deandre Hopkins, and Cooper Kupp all had very good days as well. Let’s take a look around the league once again to see if we can help you win some money!

Side note: the values and scoring we use are from Draft Kings. I prefer them for two reasons. They utilize PPR scoring and have an additional flex spot on the roster with no kickers. Everyone hates kickers.

Quarterbacks: 
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers 

Value – $8,100
I don’t normally spend big money at quarterback, but when I do I prefer Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers you’re really paying for a high consistent floor with a lot of upside. Through four weeks he’s thrown for less than 300 yards all but one time, and he made up for it in that game by throwing four touchdown passes. With both Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams banged up the Packers should lean heavily on Rodgers’ arm to move the ball. This week’s matchup against Dallas could generate a lot of points, and the Cowboys defense just gave up 35 points in a loss to the Rams. If Jared Goff can throw for 250 yards and two touchdowns against that defense, then you know Rodgers should be able to shred them apart. 
Tom Brady – New England Patriots 

Value – $8,000
Tom Brady has been on a tear after a slow start to the season against the Chiefs. Over the last three weeks the future Hall of Famer has thrown for 1,132 yards and ten touchdowns. Needless to say, Brady has won some fantasy football matchups for those that selected him. As I said with Rodgers, I typically try to find value at quarterback. However, he has a very favorable situation on his hands this week. The Patriots defense has struggled so far this year and has allowed at least 20 points in each game. They’ll face off against a high powered Tampa Bay offense that should be able to move the ball with relative ease, which could result in a lot of points being scored on both sides. Brady is going to cost you a pretty penny, but he’s essentially a lock to put up 30 points against a defense that sits at 31st against opposing quarterbacks. 
Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Value – $6,000
I like Jameis Winston this week for all of the reasons I gave above about Tom Brady. The big difference here is that Winston is $2,000 cheaper. While Brady is without a doubt the better option, Winston’s price tag will free up a lot of cash for you to upgrade other positions. After a slow start in the first game, Famous Jameis has thrown for at least 325 yards and two touchdowns in two consecutive weeks. Doug Martin will also make his season debut, which should give Winston another weapon to utilize in this high powered offense. I expect a lot of points in this game, and I’ll be plugging in players from both the Buccaneers and Patriots into my lineups. 
Carson Palmer – Arizona Cardinals 

Value – $5,900
After a sluggish start, Carson Palmer looks like a different player than we saw last season. I thought for sure that this would be the year the long time veteran would fall off the map. Surprisingly, Palmer has scored 20 fantasy points in three straight games and has thrown for over 1,000 yards with four touchdowns over that span. After David Johnson was lost for the season I thought for sure that this team would fall apart. It turns out that may have actually helped Palmer’s fantasy stock. Without Johnson the Cardinals are forced to throw more, which gives more opportunities for their quarterback. He also has an advantageous matchup this week against an Eagles defense that has given up at least 24 points in three straight games. I don’t think Palmer goes off this week, but a steady floor of around 20 points is likely. 
Hail Mary play:
Jacoby Brissett – Indianapolis Colts

Value – $5,600
This offense desperately needs Andrew Luck back on the field. While Brissett is certainly an upgrade from Scott Tolzien, he doesn’t exactly have opposing defenses shaking in their boots. However, Brissett is just one game removed from scoring three total touchdowns against the Browns in week three. It can be argued that the 49ers are just as bad on defense as Cleveland if not worse. Indianapolis certainly has more weapons on offense. This is a true toss up as Brissett as just as good a chance to score 10 points as he does to score 25. I just have a gut feeling that playing at home against an equally subpar opponent gives Brissett and the Colts a chance to put up some points. This is one you’re plugging in and crossing your fingers. 
Running backs:
Todd Gurley – Los Angeles Rams

Value – $8,000
I know, I know. The Rams play the Seahawks this week, and I’m an idiot for endorsing Todd Gurley as a daily fantasy option. Here me out here though. Seattle gave up 33 points to the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago, and DeMarco Murray rushed for 115 yards. Hell, even Frank Gore scored eleven points against Seattle last week. I’m not arguing that this isn’t a great defense. They are. I am pointing out that this Rams offense has turned completely around from where they were last season. Jared Goff is playing better, they added talented receivers, and they’re utilizing Todd Gurley as much as humanly possible. Gurley’s lowest point total through the first four games is nearly 21 points. He shouldn’t be highly owned due to his price and matchup, but I still think Gurley finishes in the top five in scoring this week. 
Bilal Powell – New York Jets

Value – $6,200
Bilal Powell absolutely feasted on the Jacksonville defense last week. He finished the day with 167 total yards, a touchdown, and 32 fantasy points. This was the game everyone needed that selected him in redraft leagues. Powell has shared carries with both Matt Forte and rookie Elijah McGuire this season, but Powell looks like a workhorse with Forte sidelined with an injury. While McGuire did see ten carries and made the most of it, his counterpart ran the ball 21 times. I expect much of the same this week. The Jets face a Cleveland defense that’s ranked 23rd against running backs, and Powell is still relatively cheap at $6,200. He should have another strong performance. 
Duke Johnson – Cleveland Browns

Value – $4,900
Duke Johnson’s stat lines look more like a wide receiver than a running back over the last few weeks. He’s only averaging 19 rushing yards in the last three games but has racked up 187 receiving yards on 18 catches for two touchdowns. While Isiah Crowell has seen the work between the tackles, he’s been incredibly underwhelming so far this season. Johnson is the running back in this offense that helps move the sticks and should be leaned on heavily again this week. Neither the Jets nor the Browns are very good against the running back position. Johnson has a decent shot at another solid performance against a subpar defense at home. 
Wendell Smallwood – Philadelphia Eagles

Value – $4,600
This was a borderline Hail Mary play for me this week. The Eagles face a Cardinals defense that’s ranked in the top half of the league against running backs. However, I feel that hurts LeGarrette Blount more than it does Smallwood. The second year back is clearly going to be handling the receiving work out of the backfield for Philadelphia with Darren Sproles done for the year, and he accounted for 79 yards and a touchdown last week. I think the Cardinals offense should be able to put up points against this defense, and Philadelphia could find themselves playing from behind. If that’s the case, then Smallwood has a good chance to put up serviceable numbers. At $4,600 he could be considered a steal. 
Hail Mary play:
Doug Martin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Value – $5,500
Remember how much fun it was to play Jacquizz Rodgers this season and get a solid return on that investment? Well, those good times may be coming to an end. Doug Martin will make his season debut this week after serving a suspension, and I think we’ll see one hungry dude on the field. The Buccaneers paid Martin big money on a five year contract last year, and he’s their running back regardless of what the coaching staff as said in recent weeks. I’m including the Muscle Hamster here simply because it’s his first time on the field in 2017. It’s hard to predict what we’ll see this week, but Tampa Bay’s game plan should be to keep the ball away from Tom Brady. That starts with the run game. Martin isn’t the most inexpensive player on this list, but he could have the largest return due to his role in this offense. 
Wide receivers: 
Jordy Nelson – Green Bay Packers 

Value – $8,100
Statistically speaking, Jordy Nelson is leading the league in fantasy points per game. He got banged up in the first series against Atlanta in week two, which logged zero points on the week. Considering he didn’t actually play in that game, I’m not counting that. In the other three contests Nelson is averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game, which puts him ahead of every other wide receiver in the NFL. Green Bay will likely have to turn to the passing attack this week with two running backs banged up, and Nelson should feed against a Cowboys defense that just gave up 35 points to the Rams. He’s my favorite top tier receiver this week. 
Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Value – $7,900
I said it before, and I’ll say it again. Get some Buccaneers and Patriots players in your lineups this week. Mike Evans is currently tied for fourth with AJ Green in fantasy points per game and should continue his hot streak this week against a Patriots defense that ranks 31st against the wide receivers. There was some concern that Evans’ would regress this season with the addition of Desean Jackson. That doesn’t seem to be the case so far as the star receiver as seen at least 11 targets in the last two games. Play him with confidence this week. 
Chris Hogan – New England Patriots 

Value – $6,100
Outside of Tom Brady, Chris Hogan has been one of the most consistent players for the Patriots offense. Hogan is averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks and has scored four touchdowns in that same span. While Danny Amendola has picked up some of the targets left on the table after Julian Edelman was lost for the season, Hogan is the one that is finding the end zone most consistently. He’s fairly inexpensive considering his floor and has a very advantageous matchup against Tampa Bay. 
Jarvis Landry – Miami Dolphins 

Value $5,800
Landry’s production has declined in each of the last two weeks after a 20 point performance to open the season. Devante Parker has been gaining more attention from Jay Cutler, which makes sense considering Miami has been playing from behind in each of the last two games. Landry isn’t a big play threat but instead moves the chains with high volume short to intermediate routes. I do think this is the week he gets back on track. The Dolphins face a Titans defense that was just demolished by Deshaun Watson last week. Landry isn’t going to put up 30 points, but he offers a consistent floor and guaranteed targets at an inexpensive price. 
Hail Mary play:
Will Fuller – Houston Texans 

Value – $4,400
Fuller made his season debut last Sunday against the Titans, and he came back with a splash. The second year wide receiver was targeted six times and caught four of them for 35 yards and and two touchdowns. Fuller is going to be a welcome addition to Deshaun Watson, who previously only really had Deandre Hopkins as his lone reliable target. It’s possible that Fuller could see more targets this week against the Chiefs considering Hopkins should be shadowed by Marcus Peters often. I’d be surprised if another two touchdown performance happens for Fuller, but I won’t be shocked if he outperforms his price point. 
Tight ends:
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles

Value – $6,200
As I said last week, I’m going to keep playing Zach Ertz until he doesn’t have either a touchdown or 80 receiving yards. Carson Wentz has targeted his tight end at least eight times in each game this season, which shows you the chemistry these two players have. I’m a little afraid that this is the week we may see Ertz’s production dip since he faces an Arizona defense that has locked down tight ends so far this season. However, he’s still a solid option considering his consistency at a position that is lacking in that department. 
Cameron Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Value – $3,700
Are we noticing a theme with Buccaneers players yet? After a sluggish season start to the season, Cameron Brate has scored a touchdown in two consecutive games and had 80 receiving yards last week. The presence of OJ Howard has taken a little attention away from Brate, but Jameis Winston is still favoring his breakout tight end from a season ago. As I’ve already mentioned several times, the Patriots defense has been porous as of late and is ranked next to last in the league against tight ends. At $3,700 Brate is a steal this week. 
Charles Clay – Buffalo Bills

Value – $4,800
Charles Clay has emerged as the primary target for Tyrod Taylor after Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods left for Los Angeles. As a result, he is on track to have one of his best statistical seasons of his career. Clay had a monster game last week against the Falcons with five catches and 112 yards, which is crazy when you consider Tyrod Taylor only through for a total of 182 yards. The veteran tight end will have a slightly more difficult defensive matchup this week against the Bengals, but he still should still put up decent numbers as a focal point in Buffalo’s passing attack. 
Delanie Walker – Tennessee Titans 

Value – $4,700
Delanie Walker has been mostly quiet over the last couple of games, which is a little surprising considering the Titans had to play from behind essentially the entire time in a blowout loss to Houston. Walker has always been one of the more reliable tight ends in the league, and I think he gets back on track this week against Miami. The Dolphins are next level bad with Jay Cutler at the helm. They’ve allowed 40 points over the last two weeks and have only put up six points. Even if Mariota doesn’t play, Matt Cassel is still an experienced quarterback and should target his tight end often. 
Hail Mary play:
Tyler Kroft – Cincinnati Bengals 

Value – $3,200
The tight end position in Cincinnati has generally been a solid source of fantasy production over the last few years. Tyler Eifert, when healthy, is a touchdown machine. Unfortunately, he just can’t stay on the field for a full season. Tyler Kroft had a very Eifert-like performance last week against the Browns by catching six passes for 68 yards and two touchdowns. It’s very possible that Andy Dalton’s chemistry with Kroft has improved since Eifert’s injury, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he starts looking for his tight end more often moving forward. While the Bills have been fairly dominate on defense, they’re still a middle of the road defense against tight ends. I don’t see Kroft scoring two touchdowns again, but he could be involved enough to be a serviceable option this week. 
Who I’m Stacking:
Phillip River/Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers 

Value – $13,000
I feel like Rivers is undervalued this week after putting up a strong stat line against the Eagles. He threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns, which was nice to see after an extremely disappointing outing against the Chiefs the week before. Keenan Allen also came out of his shell and had his second best game of the season with five catches and 138 yards. The Chargers have to travel cross country to New York this week to face the Giants, but that shouldn’t worry you. The Giants have been a very below average team through the first four games and have allowed at least 24 points in three consecutive weeks. I will say that Eli Manning has been playing well, so this could develop into a high scoring affair. I like both Rivers and Allen to put up big numbers. 
Deshaun Watson/Deandre Hopkins – Houston Texans

Value – $13,700
This one will set you back a bit this week, but this pairing features two players that shouldn’t be very highly owned. Watson is coming off the best game of his young career and has increased his fantasy production in each of the first four games this season. While I don’t think we’ll see him find the end zone five times, but I do think the rookie is playing with a lot of confidence and swagger that will keep him on the right track. Kansas City held Kirk Cousins to only 220 passing yards but allowed him to throw for two touchdowns. There is concern here that Deandre Hopkins will see a healthy dose of Marcus Peters, but the Chiefs star corner doesn’t typically shadow one receiver. Hopkins is the most targeted wide receiver in the league, so he’s guaranteed to see a lot of attention from his quarterback. While this stack will put a dent in your budget, there is enough value at other positions this week to make it work. 
Hail Mary play:
Brian Hoyer/Pierre Garcon – San Francisco 49ers

Value – $10,800
I had this same stack as my Hail Mary play last week, and it bombed on every level. I’m throwing them out here again due to an advantageous matchup against the Colts. Hoyer has scored more than 10 fantasy points once so far this season. However, Indianapolis has a very exploitable secondary. Garcon has been up and down thus far in San Francisco, but his better performances have come in alternating weeks. I’m hoping that pattern continues. He’s the primary receiver in this offense and should see plenty of targets from Hoyer. 
Steal of the Week:
Frank Gore – Indianapolis Colts

Value – $4,400
It’s a pity that Frank Gore is spending the twilight of his career in an offense that’s been without Andrew Luck for a good chunk of it. This guy will be in the Hall of Fame one day and deserves to go out on a high note. Fortunately, the Colts play San Francisco this weekend. This defense is ranked next to last in the league against running backs, which obviously gives Gore a significant boost. Indianapolis won’t want to throw the ball much with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, which means Gore should see a healthy amount of carries. The veteran running back has scored at least ten fantasy points in the last three games, but I think he has his best game of the season this week. 

I hope you all enjoy reading this as much as I enjoy writing it each week. I’m truly passionate about fantasy football and love any opportunity to share my opinions with you. As always, hit us up @No_HuddleFFB on Twitter for any questions you might have. Get rich this week!!!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s