Managing Your Money – DFS Guide Week 9

The weather on the east coast last week killed some of my picks at quarterback. Both Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz dipped a bit in production, which I directly attribute to them having to play in a torrential downpour. Pretty much all of my running backs panned out, but LeSean McCoy and Jerick McKinnon would’ve been a nice duo to have in your lineups. All in you could’ve pieced together a lineup that would’ve scored you around 150 points last week, which was enough to at least double your money depending on what format you were playing in. We’ll see if we can do it again this week. Let’s do this!

Side note: the values and scoring we use are from Draft Kings. I prefer them for two reasons. They utilize PPR scoring and have an additional flex spot on the roster with no kickers. Everyone hates kickers.

Quarterbacks: 
Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks 

Value – $7,300
Russell Wilson has had his ups and downs this season, but he’s been on a roll over the last two games. He’s thrown for 786 and seven touchdowns over the last couple of weeks and is coming off his best game of the year. It feels as if Pete Carroll has all but given up on trying to run the football and seems content with letting his star quarterback make enough plays to win the game each week. While Washington is a middle of the road defense against quarterbacks, there’s not much about this matchup that scares me. Wilson is a top three quarterback for me this week. 
Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints

Value – $7,000
I’m still waiting on Drew Brees to have that one big game we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from him. He’s been mostly fine this season, but one thing that’s changed is the Saints defense is actually playing decent. Brees is able to manage the game rather than having to throw 60 passes to keep his team competitive. The emergence of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara has helped keep the pressure off as well. That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if Brees goes off this week against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are 27th in the league against quarterbacks, and Brees is at home. This feels like a no brainer. 
Matt Stafford – Detroit Lions

Value – $6,100
Imagine the points Stafford would’ve put up last week had he just been able to get the ball into the end zone. He threw for 423 yards against the Steelers, which was still good enough for 21 fantasy points. It’s just fun to think about what could’ve been. This marks the second consecutive game where Stafford has thrown for more than 300 yards, and he has an advantageous matchup this week against the Packers. Green Bay ranks 23rd in the league against quarterbacks but has been fairly solid against opposing running backs. I see Stafford needing to throw to move the ball in this one, and I think he’ll extend this little hot streak he’s on. 
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys 

Value – $6,700
I’m not going to lie, I’m a little nervous about this one. We don’t really know what this offense is going to look without Ezekiel Elliott, assuming he stays suspended. Prescott is coming off his worse game of the season by far, but that can be chalked up to extremely bad weather. Before that he was on an absolute roll, and I think he’s got a good chance to get back on track this week. The Chiefs are second to last in the league against quarterbacks, and it’s not like Dak doesn’t have enough weapons to move the ball. He’s a little dicey considering the running back situation, but I like him at his price point. 
Hail Mary play:
Drew Stanton – Arizona Cardinals 

Value – $4,700
I’ve said it before, but any quarterback playing San Francisco is worth a look in daily fantasy formats. Unfortunately, that just so happens to be Drew Stanton this week. His first appearance of the season couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start. He managed to throw for just 66 yards and an interception in his limited action after Carson Palmer exited the game. However, he’s worth a dart throw this week against the 49ers who rank 25th against quarterbacks. 
Running backs:
Kareem Hunt – Kansas City Chiefs 

Value – $8,600
I like Kareem Hunt the most out of all of the big name running backs this week. While his fantasy point totals have decreased in every game since week three, I think this is the game where we see him get back on top of his game. Hunt was swallowed up by the Broncos last week and gained only 46 yards on 22 rushing attempts. That’s barely over two yards per carry but is understandable considering his opponent. The rookie sensation faces a much friendlier matchup this week in a Dallas defense that’s surrendered some big games to opposing running backs this season. He’ll put a dent in your budget, but Hunt has the best matchup out of all of the top tier running backs. 
Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints 

Value – $6,600
I originally had Mark Ingram listed here. While I do like Ingram this week I like Kamara just as much, and the rookie will save you a grand on your budget. Ingram has no doubt made his presence known since the departure of Adrian Peterson, but Kamara hasn’t exactly been a slouch either. The rookie is extremely involved in the passing game and has scored at least 12 fantasy points in five consecutive games. Furthermore, the Saints matchup with Tampa Bay this week could turn into a shootout. Look for Kamara to get plenty of work if that proves to be the case. 
Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers

Value – $6,000
I’ll be the first to admit that I was out on Aaron Jones after his first big game after both Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams were injured in the same game a few weeks back. However, all that changed when Aaron Rodgers went down. It’s clear the Packers do not want Brett Hundley throwing the ball anymore than he has to. As a result, Aaron Jones has two games with at least 125 rushing yards and a touchdown in two out of the last three games. If we’re being honest, the Lions will be a much tougher opponent than the last defense Jones faced. However, he should have plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers. Take advantage while you can, because this will be the cheapest the rookie will be for the foreseeable future if he has another big game. 
Adrian Peterson – Arizona Cardinals 

Value – $5,600
Adrian Peterson’s last outing was a rude awakening for those who thought he had been reborn in Arizona. Just one week after tearing Tampa Bay apart for over 28 fantasy points, the veteran went right back to his regular old 2 yard per carry self against the Rams. To be fair, Arizona lost Carson Palmer in that game and was playing catchup basically the entire time in a shutout. However, the Cardinals had a week off and more time to allow Drew Stanton settle in as the starter. There isn’t a better matchup in the league for a struggling offense than San Francisco, and their defense is dead last in the league against running backs. I have to assume Arizona will want to keep Stanton from throwing as much as possible, which means Peterson should see a healthy workload. Consider him a flier that could pay off big considering his price tag. 
Hail Mary play:
Alfred Morris/Darren McFadden – Dallas Cowboys 

Value – $5,500
Whelp, it finally happened. Ezekiel Elliott is officially suspended for the next six games unless some miracle occurs. At this point Alfred Morris has been named the starting running back, but Darren McFadden could very well be the better back in this situation. Honestly it’s a crap shoot, so you can pick either player you feel more comfortable with here. Regardless of who gets the most carries, they will be running behind arguably the best offensive line in the National Football League. The Chiefs have been solid against running backs this season, so this is a pretty big gamble. However, Dak Prescott can’t do everything and will need to rely on the running game to keep defenses honest. This is a pick your poison type of scenario, but I’m willing to bet one of these running backs sets themselves apart from the other this week. If you figure out which one that will be before kickoff let me know. 
Wide receivers:
Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Value – $7,700
It’s hard to say that Mike Evans has been disappointing, but it just feels like something is missing this season. He’s not necessarily lost as many targets as some thought with the additions Tampa Bay made on offense, but his touchdown total has been the big let down. Evans had twelve touchdowns in 2016. So far this season he has found the end zone four times. You can chalk that up to a few different factors, one of which being that Jameis Winston is clearly not 100% healthy. That being said, I think Evans has a shot to have his first true breakout game this week against the Saints. This should be a matchup with a lot of scoring taking place, and Evans should be heavily targeted. He’s one of my favorite receivers this week despite his high price tag. 
Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs 

Value – $6,700
I’ve joked this season about Tyreek Hill being an “every other week” player. Well at this point it’s a very real pattern. Hill has had alternating double digit points followed by single digit performances in every single game this season, and guess what? He only had two catches for 38 yards against the Broncos last week. That means the second year receiver is due for a big game against the Cowboys on the road. It certainly helps that Dallas is ranked 23rd against wide receivers. Perhaps I’m taking a leap of faith here, but there’s a trend and numbers don’t lie. At least not very often. 
Golden Tate – Detroit Lions 

Value – $6,300
I’d like to think this week’s matchup against the Packers would be a game where Detroit will be able to control the clock. Unfortunately, they don’t have much of a running game. This means Matt Stafford will more than likely need to throw the ball to move the chains, and there are few wide receivers in the league more capable of that duty than Golden Tate. All of the reports last week pointed to Tate not playing early on after suffering an injury before Detroit’s bye. He ended up playing, however, and hauled in seven passes for 86 yards. I think we’ll see more of the same from Tate this week in a game where the Lions will likely struggle to move the ball on the ground. 
Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints

Value – $7,200
In case you haven’t noticed, I have a certain affinity for Saints and Buccaneers players this week. This should be a high scoring matchup, so you’ll want to sprinkle in players from each team if possible. While Michael Thomas has been fine this season, he hasn’t had many games that truly standout. That could turn around this week, and I think we’ll see Thomas get his first 100 yard game of the season. Tampa Bay is next to last in the league against opposing wide receivers, so this one seems like an easy pick. 
Hail Mary:
TY Hilton – Indianapolis Colts

Value – $4,900
This is what it’s come to with TY Hilton. This guy has all the talent in the world, but the Colts offense has been atrocious recently. Jacoby Brissett has struggled to make plays, which has severely impacted Hilton’s production. The hope here is similar to Amari Cooper a few weeks back. At some point Hilton is going to get back on track and have more than two receptions for 30 yards. That could happen this week in what should be a beat down against the Texans. Houston’s offense is firing on all cylinders, and Indianapolis will have to throw to stay in this game. Fingers crossed that Hilton gets something going. 
Tight ends:
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles 

Value – $6,800
The Ertz train shows no signs of slowing down at this point. Even in what was a down game for Carson Wentz in terrible weather, Ertz was still able to find the end zone and finish with 13 fantasy points. You’re paying for consistency with Zach Ertz. While he’s not had more than 20 points in a game so far, he hasn’t scored less than 13 fantasy points once this season and has scored five touchdowns in the last four games. The matchup against Denver shouldn’t scare you off. The Broncos are next to last in the league against tight ends. Look for Zach Ertz to keep on trucking. 
Evan Engram – New York Giants

Value – $5,600
I realize that Evan Engram doesn’t have the best matchup this week. In fact, most people would advise against playing the rookie against the 3rd ranked defense against tight ends. However, at this point Engram is just about the only somewhat reliable pass catcher the Giants have. He’s also caught eleven passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games. Until someone else steps up on this team, Engram should see enough attention from Eli Manning to keep producing. 
Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks 

Value – $5,000
Jimmy Graham has been on a roll after a sluggish start to the season. The veteran tight end has posted double digit performances in five consecutive games and is coming off his highest scoring game of the year. Considering Seattle lacks any viable running game to speak of, one can only assume that Russell Wilson will continue to have to throw the ball to move the chains and score. Seattle faces a Washington defense this week that has struggled to contain opposing tight ends at times this season, so Jimmy Graham is a solid start. 
AJ Derby – Denver Broncos 

Value – $2,900
I included AJ Derby on my list last week, and he found the end zone which made for a respectable finish from a fantasy standpoint. He’s worth rolling the dice on once again simply because he’s so inexpensive. Denver’s offense is struggling to the point where it’s almost painful to watch, but Brock Osweiler should at least be competent enough to find his tight end. Derby has back to back games with over ten fantasy points. He’s a gamble but will free up a ton of cash for other positions if he puts up similar numbers this week. 
Hail Mary play:
Jonnu Smith – Tennessee Titans 

Value – $3,400
There was a time earlier in the season where Jonnu Smith looked like he might pan out to be a regular contributor to the Titans offense after the rookie tight end found the end zone in back to back games. That was obviously short lived considering he’s been relatively quiet since then. However, I like him as a dart throw IF Delanie Walker misses time with a bone bruise. If Walker can’t suit up, then Smith should be on the field early and often. The Ravens defense has been stout at times this season, and Marcus Mariota may continue to struggle. Still, Jonnu Smith has proven he has a nose for the end zone. Again, keep an eye on the injury report to see if Delanie Walker is active. If the veteran ends up playing just pretend you never read this. 
Who I’m Stacking:
Deshaun Watson/Will Fuller – Houston Texans

Value – $15,100
This one is going to cost you a pretty penny, but at this point there’s just no reason to think that Watson is slowing down any time soon. I tried playing around to see if I could fit in DeAndre Hopkins as well, but he’s Antonio Brown level expensive now. So, Will Fuller is the next best option. Deshaun Watson has at least three touchdowns in each of the last four games, and Will Fuller has found the end zone two times in all but one contest. Considering the Colts are ranked 29th and 24th against the quarterback and wide receiver positions, there’s no reason to think the good times will slow down in Houston in the near future. 
Alex Smith/Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs 

Value – $13,200
After a tough matchup against the Broncos, I think both Alex Smith and Tyreek Hill bounce back this week. Smith produced a season low 14.4 fantasy points against Denver but still managed to throw for over 200 yards and a touchdown. He should have much more luck against a Dallas defense that seemingly can’t slow down opposing quarterbacks. Tyreek Hill should also bounce back as he had a down game last week. As we all know that’s simply how Hill operates. This kid has literally had 15 or more fantasy points in alternating weeks every game this season. He put up less than five points against Denver, so it’s time for the flood gates to open. This is about as close to a sure thing as you can get this week. 
Hail Mary play:
Jared Goff/Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams

Value – $10,000
While Jared Goff has been a pleasant surprise this season, he’s still been up and down from a fantasy standpoint. However, Goff is coming off his third best game of the season and faces a decimated Giants team. So far this year Cooper Kupp seems to be one of Jared Goff’s favorite targets. Sammy Watkins has been mostly quiet, which is disappointing if you’re a Rams fan. I will say that Robert Woods has been off and on at times, but he’s not exactly filling the stat sheet each week. If there’s one Rams receiver I’m taking a chance on it’s got to be Cooper Kupp. Goff targets the rookie often and looked his way ten times the last time the Rams took the field. This is a cheap stack that has a chance to get you around 40 points. If that pans out, then these two are well worth their price tags. 
Steal of the Week:
Alex Collins – Baltimore Ravens

Value – $4,600
I have zero faith in the Ravens coaching staff if they do not give at least 20 carries to Alex Collins this week. There is absolutely no reason why any other running back should touch the ball other than Buck Allen on passing downs. Collins dominated Miami’s rush defense for 113 yards on 18 carries last week and looked explosive in doing so. I realize that Tennessee is ranked in the top ten against running backs, but it’s clear the Baltimore wants to run the ball. Unless this somehow turns out to be a one sided affair in Tennessee’s favor, then I think Collins should see plenty of work. He’s a gamble but should see the lions share of the carries. Dial him up again this week. 

I hope you all enjoy reading this as much as I enjoy writing it each week. I’m truly passionate about fantasy football and love any opportunity to share my opinions with you. As always, hit us up @No_HuddleFFB on Twitter for any questions you might have. Get rich this week!!!

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