Managing Your Money – DFS Guide Week 14

Well, we had some hits and misses last week. Wide receiver my biggest issue as this was the first week in a long time that I featured multiple top tier receivers. The slate allowed for it considering the value at running back, but DeAndre Hopkins was the only one that really panned out. Other than that, you should have been able to piece together a solid lineup with my suggestions at quarterback, running back, and tight end. Let’s see if we can turn things around this week and make some money!!!

Side note: the values and scoring we use are from Draft Kings. I prefer them for two reasons. They utilize PPR scoring and have an additional flex spot on the roster with no kickers. Everyone hates kickers.

Quarterbacks:

Phillip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers

Value – $6,800

Phillip Rivers has been up and down at times this season, but it seems like he’s coming alive at the right time. Just one week after shredding Dallas, Rivers threw for 344 yards and a touchdown against the Browns. He’s now thrown for 778 yards and four touchdowns in the last two weeks but is still reasonably priced considering his production. The Chargers have an advantageous matchup at home this week against Washington, who is coming off a one sided loss to Dallas where the defense looked lost at times. Rivers has a strong shot to continue his hot streak this week.

Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams

Value – $6,600

No Robert Woods, no problem. The Rams offense is continuing to click down the stretch and has put up at least 26 points in six out of the last seven contests. Obviously, Jared Goff is a big reason for their success. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in four out of the last five games and has thrown for over 300 yards three times during that span. While the Eagles should present a challenge, we saw last week that they can be beaten after a loss to Seattle. Philadelphia is ranked 19th against opposing quarterbacks this season, which makes Goff a strong play.

Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Value – $5,900

Jameis Winston didn’t exactly blow the doors off in his return from an injury last week against the Packers, but his 270 passing yard and two touchdown performance was a welcome sight for fantasy owners. There was a stretch earlier in the season where Famous Jameis threw for 325 yards or more in three consecutive games, so it’s not like he hasn’t played well at all this season. Now that he’s seemingly healthy I think Winston has a chance to put up some big numbers this week against the Lions at home. Tampa Bay’s offense is loaded with talent, so it’s just up to their quarterback to utilize it.

Derek Carr – Oakland Raiders

Value – 6,400

There was a time towards the middle of the season where it looked like Derek Carr was finally getting on track to be the quarterback some thought he could be this season. Don’t get me wrong, Carr hasn’t necessarily played poorly this season for the most part. However, the expectations for this team were at the Super Bowl level. The league’s previous highest paid quarterback threw for 287 yards and a touchdown against the Giants last week, which is the fourth time in five games where he’s failed to throw for more than one touchdown. I’m hoping that changes this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City was just shredded by Josh McCown, so I’m optimistic Carr can have similar success. He’s not a lock by any means, but the opportunity is there with his receivers returning.

Hail Mary play:

Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49ers

Value – $5,500

If you’re looking for an inexpensive quarterback with a great matchup this week, then look no further Jimmy Garoppolo. The former Patriot made his season debut against Chicago last week and earned his first win in a 49ers uniform. Garoppolo didn’t play particularly well, throwing for 293 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, but Chicago’s defense has actually been stingy at times this season. I like Garoppolo’s matchup this week much more as San Francisco travels to face off against Houston. The Texans are dead last in the league against quarterbacks, so this could be Jimmy Garoppolo’s coming out party.

Running backs:

Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints

Value – $8,400

At this point there’s simply no reason not to play Alvin Kamara in your daily fantasy lineups. Sure he’s approaching Le’Veon Bell in terms of price, but the rookie out of Tennessee shows absolutely no signs of slowing down. Kamara has scored at least 25 fantasy points in five consecutive outings and hasn’t scored less than double digits since the second week of the season. I expect him to be heavily utilized once again against the Falcons this week.

Lamar Miller – Houston Texans

Value – $5,800

While Lamar Miller hasn’t had many eye popping stat lines this season, he’s actually been fairly consistent for the most part. Miller has scored at least ten fantasy points in all but two games this season and is the clear workhorse in this offense. He’s also had at least 15 carries in the last three weeks and has been targeted out of the backfield often. Miller also has an excellent matchup this week in the 49ers. San Francisco is dead last in the league against running backs, so there is definitely some upside here at a decent price point.

Alfred Morris – Dallas Cowboys

Value – $5,500

Well it’s about damn time. After several straight weeks of looking completely lost without Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys offense looked completely different last week against Washington. They were finally able to establish a running game, which allowed Alfred Morris to gain 127 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. This is the way this offense is designed to work, and I’m betting on the fact that they finally cracked the code. If that’s the case, then Morris is a strong play this week against a vulnerable Giants run defense.

Alex Collins – Baltimore Ravens

Value – $4,800

Despite his recent success, I’ve been hesitant to endorse Alex Collins for fantasy purposes. Maybe I’m just jaded over the whole Terrance West and Buck Allen debacle earlier this season. However, I’m in at this point since Baltimore has seemingly chosen a featured running back. Collins has now scored four touchdowns in three games and has put up at least 13 fantasy points in four out of the last five weeks. Baltimore’s offense is suddenly clicking down the stretch, so Collins should be a viable option moving forward. The matchup against Pittsburgh looks tough on paper, but the Steelers just allowed Giovanni Bernard to rush for 77 yards on 13 carries. Collins has a strong chance to put up similar numbers considering his usage rate.

Hail Mary play:

Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers

Value – $4,700

Remember when Aaron Jones looked like the running back to own in Green Bay before his injury? I think there’s a chance we may get to see that again. Jones only had one carry last week in his return to the field. It just so happens that one carry was a 20 yard game winning touchdown run. Jamaal Williams has been solid in his time as the lone back in Green Bay, but the Packers have been reluctant to stick with one running back as long as they have healthy players. Jones has proven himself to be a talented player and could put up decent numbers if he sees more work this week against Cleveland.

Wide receivers:

Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers

Value – $8,300

Keenan Allen has been unstoppable as of late. After a slow start to the season, Allen now has 436 receiving yards and four touchdowns over the last three games. Phillip Rivers has rarely looked in any other receiver’s direction and has targeted his favorite receiver a whopping 41 times during that span. I’ve always been a big Keenan Allen believer, so it’s nice to see him put up these kinds of numbers after being riddled with injury over the last few seasons. The matchup against the Redskins isn’t ideal, but I’m riding this train until it falls off the tracks.

Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings

Value – 7,200

Well, it couldn’t have lasted forever. After an extremely impressive four game stretch in which Adam Thielen averaged 119 yards a game, he posted one of his worst performances of the season against the Falcons as he caught four passes for 51 yards. Chalk this one up to lack of attention from Case Keenum. Thielen saw a season low five targets come his way from his quarterback, so this performance seems like an outlier. He should bounce back this week against a Carolina secondary that’s struggled to contain opposing receivers and is ranked 26th in the league against the position.

Golden Tate – Detroit Lions

Value – $6,400

Marvin Jones has been much more involved in Detroit’s passing attack this season, which comes at a detriment to Golden Tate. Tate has never been the type of player that scores a ton of touchdowns, but he’s a more than capable short range receiver that does his damage in the short to mid range game and generally requires a lot of targets to make an impact. After a two game skid, Tate got back on track last week with eight receptions and 69 yards against a tough Ravens secondary. He should have more room to operate this week against the Buccaneers, who have struggled to contain the wide receiver position this year.

Josh Gordon – Cleveland Brown

Value – $5,500

I seriously considered adding Josh Gordon here last week as a Hail Mary play, but I wanted to see a game first. It appears that he’s picked up right where he left off, and I couldn’t be happier for this guy. Gordon had four receptions for a team high 85 yards in his first game in almost three seasons. That’s remarkable when you think about it. What’s particularly encouraging here is that Gordon was targeted a whopping 11 times by DeShone Kizer, and his four catches were more of a reflection on Kizer’s accuracy than anything else. Considering his heavy usage in his very first game back, Gordon is a steal at $5,500 against the Packers this week.

Hail Mary play:

Sterling Shepard – New York Giants

Value – $5,300

For some idiotic reason Sterling Shepard was $7,000 last week. I understand that he’s the only original starting receiver the Giants have, but to price him that high is ludicrous. As expected, Shepard struggled with Geno Smith at the helm. The good news is that Eli Manning should be declared the starter moving forward after Ben McAdoo’s firing (what a way to break a streak), which only bodes well for Shepard. He had 16 receptions and 142 yards before the migraines set in, so it’s clear the the second year receiver is going to be a focal point in the passing game. He’s a particularly strong play when you consider the Cowboys are 30th against wide receivers. All that being said, Manning could fall flat on his face and screw all of this up. We shall see.

Tight ends:

Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs

Value – $7,400

I said last week that I thought Travis Kelce would come back in a big way against the Jets, and he did not disappoint. The star tight end caught four passes for 94 yards and found the end zone twice in what ended up being a bounce back game for Kansas City’s offense as a whole. I don’t usually like to spend big money at tight end, but Kelce is the exception. He has now put up at least 20 points in four out of the last five games, so it’s worth paying up for that type of production. When you take into consideration the fact that the Raiders are 28th in the league at defending tight ends, Kelce makes a lot of sense here despite the price.

Delanie Walker – Tennessee Titans

Value – $5,700

Delanie Walker has been one of the more consistent tight ends in the league from a fantasy standpoint over that last several weeks. The veteran hasn’t had less than 12 fantasy points in the last six games. While the touchdowns haven’t been there this season, Walker has scored two of his three touchdowns on the year in the last two games and his clearly Marcus Mariota’s most trusted target. Arizona is a middle of the road defense when it comes to tight ends, so Walker should continue to be a solid option this week. Just keep an eye on the injury report and make sure he suits up.

Hunter Henry – Los Angeles Chargers

Value – $4,600

I’m real skeptical about Hunter Henry mostly due to the fact that he’s already burned me once this season. Henry had either scored a touchdown or had at least 70 receiving yards in four consecutive games earlier in the season only to completely vanish in the following weeks. He now has 12 receptions, 157 yards, and a touchdown in the last two weeks, so I’m naturally taking this with a grain of salt. That being said, Henry has a solid matchup against the Redskins this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if he extends this little hot streak he’s on. He’s moderately priced at $4,600 considering the upside.

Cameron Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Value – $4,100

I seriously considered endorsing Cameron Brate last week with Jameis Winston making his return to the field after recovering from a shoulder injury. It’s just hard to vouch for a player when he’s caught four passes for 35 yards in four games combined. While his 39 receiving yards and two catches weren’t spectacular in any way, both of Brate’s receptions were touchdowns. Winston has been known to look for his big tight end in the red zone, and the duo picked up right where they left off against the Packers last week. I’m not sure I really like Tampa Bay’s matchup against Detroit heading into week 14, but there is some upside here. Consider Brate a borderline Hail Mary play this week.

Hail Mary play:

Stephen Anderson – Houston Texans

Value – $3,200

Stephen Anderson was a nice little surprise for Houston last week as the second year tight end had the best game of his young career and finished with five receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. Anderson is all the Texans have left at tight end after CJ Fiedorowicz was placed on injured reserve with his third concussion this season. What surprised me more than any other stat was the fact that Anderson was targeted a whopping 12 times by Tom Savage. His sudden usage rate combined with the fact that the Texans really need someone to step up besides Deandre Hopkins makes Anderson an inexpensive option this week that could pay off in a big way.

Who I’m Stacking:

Russell Wilson/Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks

Value – $11,200

I understand that the Seahawks don’t have the greatest matchup this week against an impressive Jacksonville defense. However, I’m rolling the dice and riding the hot hand in Russell Wilson. I was brought up to never walk away from a heater, and I don’t plan to now. Wilson has scored at least two touchdowns in every game since week five and has found the end zone at least three times in all but two of those contests. If I’m pairing anyone with Wilson at this point it’s got to be Jimmy Graham. He’s scored a touchdown in ten consecutive games and is Wilson’s favorite target around the goal line. This will be a tough test, but this dynamic duo should be able to get the job done.

Jimmy Garoppolo/Marquise Goodwin – San Francisco 49ers

Value – $10,600

Jimmy Garoppolo made his season debut as the starting quarterback for the 49ers last week, and looked fairly decent. While San Francisco got a win, Garoppolo had a respectable 293 passing yards but failed to throw a touchdown and had one interception. This week’s matchup against Houston should be much more advantageous. Marquise Goodwin has quietly turned into viable fantasy asset over the last several weeks as he’s had at least 65 receiving yards in five of the last six games he’s participated in. This one is a long shot, but it’s a cheap stack against an inferior defense.

Hail Mary play:

Blake Bortles/Marqise Lee – Jacksonville Jaguars

Value – $10,500

In looking at the numbers, Blake Bortles has actually played surprisingly well over the last two games from a fantasy standpoint. He’s had back to back games with more than 20 fantasy points and finished last week’s contest against Indianapolis with 309 passing yards and two touchdowns. As for who I’m pairing him with, I think Marqise Lee has the most upside. Bortles targeted him ten times last week, and Lee ended up with seven receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown. I also like Dede Westbrook from a consistency standpoint. Again, this is a gamble considering the Jaguars face off against Seattle. But there’s always a chance.

Steal of the Week:

Samaje Perine – Washington Redskins

Value – $5,600

Before last week Samaje Perine had been fantastic as the lead back for the Redskins in weeks 11 and 12. He ran the ball a whopping 47 times for 217 yards and a touchdown in those two contests and was even involved in the passing game. Unfortunately, Perine was knocked out of the game last week against the Cowboys in order to get checked out for a concussion. While he was able to return, the Redskins had already fallen behind and were in comeback mode. Perine will see the bulk of the work again this week as Washington travels to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers, who are 21st in the league against opposing running backs. I’m all in.

I hope you all enjoy reading this as much as I enjoy writing it each week. I’m truly passionate about fantasy football and love any opportunity to share my opinions with you. As always, hit us up @No_HuddleFFB on Twitter for any questions you might have. Get rich this week!!!

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